In 2023, China’s diesel market price volatility, two significant increases have risen in expectations, rather than the peak season, as of December 11, the diesel market price of 7590 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the beginning of the year, down 5.85% year-on-year, the average annual price of 7440 yuan/ton, down 8.3% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, the average annual Brent price of 82.42 US dollars/barrel, down 17.57%, the decline of crude oil is significantly higher than that of diesel, and the supply and demand side supports the price of diesel better than crude oil.
2023 diesel cracker price spread is still higher than the same period last year for most of the time, starting in September with the decline in market prices, the cracker price spread began to fall, retail profits on the contrary, since 2023 domestic diesel production and retail profits how to transmit? How will the future evolve?
This year, the price of diesel oil started strongly, starting from the low inventory of the beginning of the year, and the good expectations after the end of the epidemic, opening the overdraft of the stock in advance, and then the demand is less than expected, the price of diesel oil fell about 300 yuan/ton in March, the decline is far more than gasoline, because of the early diesel stock more inventory on the high side, and the price fell when the middle and downstream dumped more goods. In April, the cost side is the main reason to support the price rise, OPEC+ additional production cuts quickly pulled up international oil prices more than 7%, the price limit of refined oil products also welcomed the largest increase of more than 500 yuan/ton in the year, supporting the rise in diesel prices, but late demand is difficult to support the increase began to enter the downward channel, has fallen to 7060 yuan/ton on June 30. The price of Shandong independent refinery fell below 7,000 yuan/ton in June, and the average price fell to the lowest position of 6,722 yuan/ton on June 28. In July, with the cracking price spread falling to the ten-year average level, traders began to open positions in advance, and the price rose to the bottom of the expected rebound, with an increase of up to 739 yuan/ton within the month. From August to September, the mentality and demand supported the high volatility of oil prices, starting from October, the price began to fall, and the price that had risen in advance also fell in advance. In November, as the price fell to the cost line level of some refineries, the refineries began to reduce the load, and the main companies also reduced the production plan according to their own inventory and demand expectations. Overall production of gasoline and diesel in November was the lowest for the same period since 2017, supporting prices, with crude oil down 7.52 percent and diesel down just 3.6 percent. In December, diesel production is still expected to be the lowest in the same period since 2017, and there is still strong support for prices.
Since 2023, the average price difference of diesel cracking in Shandong independent refinery is 724 yuan/ton, up 5.85% compared with the same period in 2022, the year shows a weak trend before the strong, the first half of the year is basically higher than the same period last year, September began to lower than the level of last year, the trend is differentiated from the same period last year, the peak season declined, the off-season rose, different from the off-season law in previous years.
Beginning in December, the diesel cracker price spread rose rapidly, and reached 1013 yuan/ton on December 7, the rapidly rising cracker price spread in the off-season of consumption, the tension of the spot resources of the lower production of diesel oil and the higher price of the ship order also hit the procurement demand of some trading enterprises, and the ship order transaction was significantly reduced. And this month’s supply increase is limited by raw materials, the rise may be small, although some refineries in Shandong can use part of next year’s quota in advance, but the 2024 allowed amount document is expected to be issued before 25, the supplement of raw materials is very limited, with the north cooling sharply, demand is expected to decline, the imbalance between supply and demand will be gradually repaired, some traders have begun to short the cracking spread, Bearish forward diesel. It is expected that in January next year, as the shortage of refinery raw materials is solved, the supply is expected to rise, and the diesel price and cracking price differential are suppressed to a certain extent, and the profit transmission will gradually transfer to the retail end.
Post time: Dec-14-2023