[Introduction] : In the first half of the year, especially since entering March, the cost of coal prices continued to fall, Ningxia Baofeng Phase III equipment put into operation, raw material support weakened, supply increased, and traditional demand gradually entered the off-season demand, coupled with the macro support strength is weak and other negative factors under the alternating influence of the price showed a volatile weakening trend.

As can be seen from the figure, the price fluctuation in January-February is relatively small, the negative factors such as the operation of the Ningxia Baofeng plant and the favorable factors such as the good warehouse before and after the Spring Festival are mutually restricted, all parties are more cautious, more wait-and-see attitude, and the market price fluctuation is relatively small; Since March, Ningxia Baofeng plant put into operation, market fundamentals are weak, prices began to weaken, April due to the strong spring inspection, the price briefly rebounded upward, May increased supply and coal prices continued to fall and other factors, the market bearish attitude continued, the price accelerated decline, at the end of June bottom rebound.

This year’s price from January to April around the 2018-2022 average price volatility, May to June due to the rapid decline in prices, this year and 2018-2022 average price spread widened. On the whole, the 2018-2022 average annual price reached the lowest position in July, and then rebounded upward, and the off-peak season was relatively obvious.

Methanol market forecast

Overall, in the first half of the year, the center of gravity of methanol spot price is mainly down, because the methanol off-peak season is more obvious, the center of gravity of price in the second half of the year or rise. From the cost side, winter is the peak season for coal demand, and coal prices may rise, which may strengthen the support for methanol prices. On the supply side, the domestic parking device is expected to recover, but on the whole this year, the construction is not high, and the supply of the domestic market in the second half of the year or a narrow increase; On the demand side, the new Ningxia Baofeng MTO device is expected to be put into operation, and several sets of acetic acid, formaldehyde and other devices are expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the demand is good; And the market for the second half of the macro optimistic. Therefore, Longzhong information expects that the methanol center of gravity or rise in the second half of the year.

Joyce
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