More than half of December has been, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market still maintains weak operation, the overall demand side continues to be weak, the new order is insufficient to follow up, the orders to be issued continue to shrink, the sales pressure of some factories is gradually rising, the price is dark to receive new orders, the trading focus is gradually moving down, Central China 55 powder factory near 3350 yuan/ton, 58 powder factory 3600-3650 yuan/ton near, the factory has not a new price, continue to execute the pre-received orders. How long can the downturn last? The market continues to wait and see.

Upstream raw materials:

Phosphate rock: Recently, the phosphate rock market remains high and stable, and the mainstream price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Guizhou region refers to 980-1050 yuan/ton, and the transaction price is concentrated around 1000 yuan/ton; The price of 28% grade ship plate in Yichang area of Hubei Province is near 1000 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of 25% grade high magnesium ship plate is above 850 yuan/ton; Sichuan Mabian area 25% grade phosphate rock county delivery price reference 650-750 yuan/ton or so. The price of 28% grade car plate in Yunnan is about 850-950 yuan/ton. Downstream factories basically accept the new price, the previous price adjustment is basically implemented, and the current raw material inventory of phosphate fertilizer enterprises is more than a month.

Sulfur: As of December 15, China’s port inventory of sulfur 2,662,500 tons, Yangtze River particles self-reference price of 925 yuan/ton. Recent US dollar order to maintain the overall weakening trend, Puguang Wanzhou pricing down, a refinery before and after two sales bidding performance is different, the cautious attitude of merchants has not disappeared, and the seller’s opinion is different, the market is slightly volatile.

Synthetic ammonia: the recent ammonia market in the main producing areas is mixed, the atmosphere of supply and demand is still general, the Shandong market has returned to rationality after a sharp rise, the supply and demand pressure in central China and East China is still there, the supply situation is abundant, the fertilizer market is relatively general and the current reduction in the southwest region is relatively limited price this week, the market is mainly linked to shipments.

Supply side:

As of December 15, the production of mono-ammonium phosphate was 230,400 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 43,600 tons year-on-year (the above production does not include the particle production of diammonium and compound fertilizer production line). This week, the industry capacity utilization rate of 59.27%, 0.28% higher than last week, 4.5 percentage points higher than last year, Hubei Zhongfu has produced products; Hubei Fengli device is being discontinued. Recently, a small number of discontinued devices have resumed normal operation, but there are also factories to reduce production, the overall change is little, is expected to maintain a narrow range of capacity utilization in the ammonium phosphate industry in the short term.

Demand side:

Recently, the raw material demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is weak to follow up, and the procurement mentality continues to wait and see. Due to the impact of snow in some areas, the shipment of compound fertilizer has slowed down slightly, but most companies have orders to be issued, and the overall production load of the compound fertilizer industry has still increased. At present, the capacity utilization rate of the downstream compound fertilizer industry is 47.63%, an increase of 1.65% compared with last week, although the start of the plant continues to increase, but mostly to produce high nitrogen fertilizer, the consumption of phosphorus is limited, and most of the large factories and northeast factories have completed some raw materials in the early stage of stocking, the recent price of raw materials is unstable, the procurement enthusiasm is not high. The rhythm of new monoammonium phosphate orders is slow.

In summary, the upstream raw material phosphate rock supply tight price situation is difficult to change, sulfur in phosphate fertilizer stable operation to maintain a narrow sideways oscillation, ammonia stable adjustment, the overall cost of little change. Although the supply side of mono-ammonium phosphate has not been significantly adjusted for the time being, the demand side continues to be depressed, and the inventory pressure may cause a decline. The demand for raw material supplement of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises still exists, but the possibility of substantial follow-up is unlikely. Therefore, the cost support strength is still there, the supply will change according to demand, and it is expected that the mono-ammonium phosphate market will remain weak and slowly move down in the short term.