Introduction: After the domestic pure MDI market went to the warehouse at a high level in May, the downward trend in June continued to digest finished product inventory and raw material inventory, pure MDI through two months of destocking, the downstream slurry market has started buying intentions, under the start of demand, can help pure MDI to advance upward?

Prices fluctuate in a narrow range and continue to digest social inventories

In 2023, the price of pure MDI is located at the relative position point of nearly three years, with limited overall fluctuation space. However, since mid-April, the market price of pure MDI has risen slowly and continued to maintain the relatively high price of the year, but the price is still at the low point of the same period in previous years. At this price stage, the demand side is relatively general, the order follow-up is continued, and the inventory of finished products in the early stage is digested. At this stage, social inventory continues to digest, and downstream inventory has also entered a low level.

The maintenance loss is continuously low, which is good for the market supply side

Shanghai Lianheng 35+ 240,000 tons/year mother liquor plant began to be repaired successively from June 11, affecting Shanghai Huntsman and Shanghai BASF rectification plant, and in addition to supporting maintenance, Ningbo phase I 400,000 tons/year plant shutdown maintenance, phase II 800,000 tons/year plant low negative operation, in addition to Fujian plant negative operation, maintain about 50% of the on-load. The 600,000-ton/year unit in Shanghai was reduced due to front-end raw material supply problems. Multiple sets of device maintenance + negative impact, the domestic MDI overall load only maintained about 60%, and since March, the pure MDI overall load continued to decline, and the operating rate in June and July only maintained about 60%.

The downstream load increases slowly, and the slurry increase is the most obvious

In May, the overall load of downstream demand was high. Among them, the slurry load is maintained at about 60%, the sole liquid load is maintained at 5-60%, the TPU load is maintained at about 70%, and the spandex load is maintained at 7-8%. However, with the limited consumption power of the terminal into the warehouse, the increase of warehouse orders, the weak demand orders in the middle and late May, entering the digestion stage, and the downstream overall profit is not good, the downstream slurry, sole liquid, TPU market overall trading price is low, little profit, resulting in a lack of downstream confidence, low trading volume driven by the maintenance of the load, little change in the load. But the outlook for the future market is still hardly optimistic. And spandex market due to high inventory, open negative state, demand has decreased. Among them, the slurry load will be about 4-5 percent, the sole liquid load will be maintained at 5 percent, the TPU load will be maintained at about 5-6 percent, and the spandex load will be maintained at about 7 percent. However, with the middle and late June, the market prices of slurry, sole stock, spandex and TPU entered the low point, after the inventory digestion to the low point, the raw materials BDO and AA started successively, the buying enthusiasm increased, and the terminal market increased due to the price advantage, the buying enthusiasm heated up, the downstream load slowly increased, especially the slurry market demand to follow up the increase more obvious.

Considering the current low social inventory, the concentration of maintenance devices, and the long-term maintenance plan of overseas devices, Hungary’s Borst Chemical Company MDI device (350,000 tons/year) began to stop production on July 18 for maintenance and technical transformation and expansion, and increased to 400,000 tons/year after technical transformation. It is expected that the maintenance will take about 80 days, and the supply side will maintain low storage. The superposed demand side starts in stages, and the stage boost force in the field heats up, or affects the short-term pure MDI center of gravity. However, the overall consumption capacity of the terminal market is not good, and the pure MDI maintenance device stores part of the driving plan in the middle and late months, and the supply store is expected to increase slightly or affect the fluctuation amplitude and time length, and continue to follow up the demand increase and supply volume changes in the later period.